My Position on the Iraq War
update:
July 27, 2008
The "surge" has worked, or, more accurately, General Petraeus' strategies, implemented as part of the surge, have worked. Improved security in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq has fostered a more promising political climate. Muqtada al-Sadr's faction has been marginalized, and the Sunnis have returned to participate in the Maliki government.
Do these improved conditions mean that U.S. forces ought to remain in Iraq beyond Spring, 2009 in order to consolidate the gains that have been made? In my mind, this is an open question. The Iraqi government has signaled that it would consent to the presence of U.S. forces for a longer period. The Iraqis have not, however, yet agreed to immunity, under Iraqi law, for U.S. troops and contractors, and they want to retain the power to veto new American military operations.
The lack of Iraqi cooperation on these last two issues, being understandable for a sovereign nation, suggests to me that it is time for our forces to leave Iraq. Pending further developments, I am adhering to my earlier promise to remove U.S. forces from Iraq by Spring, 2009.
April 2, 2007The Iraq war has been a tragic mistake. I thought the war was a bad idea from the beginning. See my letter to the editor of the New York Times, dated March 17, 2003 (just before the U.S. invasion).
I intend, if elected, to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq soon after my inauguration (by spring, 2009). For more on this subject, please refer to my earlier analysis of this issue, which follows:
My Concerns about the Iraq War
January 10, 2007The Increase in US Forces
The anticipated Iraq troop buildup will do more than just "strain" our armed forces: it will have an immediate impact on the US campaign in Afghanistan. A US Army battalion there will be redeployed to Iraq just as the Taliban is planning a major offensive. Indeed, commanders in Afghanistan have urgently asked for more troops. "Afghan war needs troops", The Baltimore Sun, 1/7/07. This shows how risky a diversion of forces to Iraq is at this time.
Intervention in Civil War
The anarchy in Iraq has aspects of a civil war in which the unity government is a partisan of the Shia majority. Mass displacements of Baghdad inhabitants are occurring on both sides at the hands of the Sunni insurgents and the Mahdi Army of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. "How violence is forging a brutal divide in Baghdad," The Times (UK), December 14, 2006. The partisanship of the unity government has, up until now, been illustrated by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's reluctance to curb the Mahdi Army and the government's unequal treatment of Sunni neighborhoods in the provision of vital services. The Iraq Study Group Report, pp. 19-20.
The interpretation of the violence in Iraq as civil war is consistent with the view of some observers that the country is headed toward partition into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish sectors, with ethnically mixed Baghdad being a focal point of the violence. E.g., Galbraith, Peter, The End of Iraq, (Simon & Schuster, 2006), pp. 222-224. Under this view, impartial rules of engagement would probably allow US forces to postpone the outcome of the battle of Baghdad, but it is unclear whether decisive population displacements can be avoided in the long term.
Use of Reconstruction Aid
Iraqi government ministries suffer from corruption, a lack of expertise and a banking system that does not permit the transfer of money. The Iraq Study Group Report, p. 21. This fact, and the regime's partisanship, make it unwise to channel US reconstruction aid through the Iraqi government. There may be another reason for the United States to administer its own aid. The concentration of oil reserves in the Kurdish and Shia regions means that the Sunni region is economically unviable on its own. The Iraq Study Group Report, p. 18. The United States might reassure the Sunnis by pursuing an ambitious program of economic development focused on the Sunni region. Leveling the economic playing field in this manner might be the best strategy of all to promote reconciliation in Iraq.